Red alert!! Communication Glitch in our programmings!!!

Have you ever been embarassed after a statement? Forced into damaged control?? Feel stupid after the fact?? You might be aware of them or you might not, but there's an error in our *programming*.(Yes I treat brains as computers and mindsets as softwares =p). Here's probably one of the reason why.

Error: Treating Inferences as facts.

Fact: A statement or claim that can be objectively verfied or proven. For example: The date today is March 23 . Wood comes mainly from trees. The tallest man-made structure to date is the Burj Dubai skyscraper.

Inference: process of reasoning from premises to a deduction or conclusion. Inferences are inevitable. Our problem arises when we treat inferences as automatic fact. It happens that our brain auto-process infos based on association, relevance and logical reasoning. This is to quickly filter out and deal with the loads of info it receives, both trivial and crucial so it does not overload and short-circuit itself.So be careful. Your inference can be your error.

Examples:

• You see a poorly dressed customer walk into your store and conclude they don't have money to spend.
• You see a woman with a fuller figure wearing a billowing blouse. You congratulate her on her upcoming pregnancy.
• You see a college student normally attired in jeans enter the room sporting a business suit. You assume they had a job interview.
• You hear a voice over the fast-food intercom. You say "Thank you, Sir" at order completion. You drive up and painfully learn that voice belonged to a woman.
• You hear the word "nurse" or "dancer" and immediately decode this as "female". Conversely, you hear "construction worker" or "engineer" and decode "male".
• You see two people standing together at a social situation. You believe they are a couple.
• You see a person driving an expensive car. You assume that he is well off.
• You pick up on a charred smell. You assume whatever your friend is cooking, you'll be looking at a black plate on the table.
• You hear a police siren go off your neighbourhood. You assume there's something big going on around the corner.
• You see a pair of bride and bridesgroom. You went up to congratulate them only to know that the man wearing the tuxedo is the best man.

Solution: It's only human for you to make inferences. Just don't automatically give them "fact" status.

"The brain processes 400 Billion bits of information a second. BUT, we are ONLY aware of 2,000 of those." -Dr. Joseph Dispenza, D.C.

Don't blame your biological processor. It's only doing what's right to keep itself from blowing up its circuitry into bits.

Content credits to LisaMarie Luccioni

TacTics19

Malicious Maths and Problematic Probability

Statistics is employed in a wide range of fields. Banks, investors and gamblers exploit it to earn millions and billions of dollars every year. Everyone agrees that the right use of statistics is advantageous. However, Mr. Statistics can be tricky. I want to demonstrate this using probabilities and to warn people not to take statistics, especially probabilities, at its face value.

Let's say I have this game of dice. There's a host and a player. The game is played with the player choosing a number from 1 to 6, then tossing an unbiased 6-sided die. If the die shows a face value matching the number chosen by the player, the host pays the player $9. If it doesn't match, then the player pays the host $1. The question is, in the long run and if you are the player, is it profitable to play this game? Now many people would think, 'Hey! Why not?? An unbiased 6-sided die means each face shows 1/6 of the time! That means I will lose 5 times and win once on average, earning me $5 approximately every 6 rounds ($10 - 5x$1).' Many people would be wrong. They have forgotten that a number has to be chosen to match. Now, the probability of choosing 1 of the 6 numbers will already be 1/6. The probability of the die face showing the chosen number will be another 1/6. Combined together, the probability of getting a die face value matching your chosen number will be 1/36!!!!! (1/6 x 1/6) That means you lose $35 for every $10 win!!!

Another example: faced with an unbiased 3 choices dilemma with each choice carrying 1/3 chance to the correct answer, choosing any option gives you 1/3 of being correct while the rest of 2/3 are held by the other 2 choices. These 2 choices carry 1/3 each to the correct answer. Therefore the chance of getting the correct answer from choosing any of the other 2 is 2/3 x 1/3 = 2/9, versus 1/3 from your initial first choice. It is now statistically proven that unless there is a change, it is always the best to stay with your first choice. Similarly, imagine a scenario where the chance of getting what you want is 50%, and you only have one try. Now, you might think that getting what you want is 50% for that try. That might sounds true, but it doesn't matter. You see, let's take a large number. Say, infinite! Now, if you have infinite try, you will get what you want 50% of the time. But what matters is the one try you have now. You should then be aware that the probability of that one try carrying what you want is actually 1/4, i.e, 1/2 the probability of that try carrying what you want multiplied by 1/2 the probability of that try being one of the 50% of infinite tries that carry what you want.

So you can see, a lot of times, it's not the fault of the world that statistics lie to you. It's your fault for being ignorant of more variables. After all, stochasticity in nature is part of the wonder of this world!!! Before I end this, I would like to remind readers (or maybe reader or even no one) that I am not an expert on statistics nor do I agree on everything I have written. Also, I would like to wish a happy belated birthday to some of the special people in my life, Adeline Sung and Hui Yi, because I missed out on greeting them on time:

HAPPY BELATED BIRTHDAY!!!!

ZhuZhu8th

Valentine

This post is written as a response to Sharon's post.

Well Sharon, Valentine's Day is the day of Saint Valentine (which kinda means Muslims aren't really supposed to celebrate it? =S). It's a tradition started by a pope during the 5th century I think. But it was not associated with romantic love until the Middle Ages. On that day, lovers give each other love notes called valentines, which of course have been replaced by cards nowadays.

As a student of economics, you would understand that Valentine's Day is crucial to the market worldwide. Every year, more than a thousand places around the world manufacture chocolates for Valentine's Day and in fact, billions of dollars are spent just to ship these chocolates (true story)! Not to mention many more billions of dollars are circulated in the economy of the world with the trading of gifts! This is all healthy by mean of money flow and might even revive a stale economy!

On the other hand, in Korea, hallmark holidays set on 14th such as Candle Day, White Day, Rose Day, Music Day, Wine Day, Movie Day and omg Silver Day (you gotta love this day if you play in the metal market) are seriously created by the commercial community to spike revenue. But then, like Valentine's Day, it's all for the sake of economy! ^^ Well as consumers maybe you wouldn't like it that much but if you view from a different perspective, these 'Day's are really great ideas!

ZhuZhu8th

新兔年快乐

恭喜发财, 万事顺利, 心想事成



To those concerned, wish we all get good results and scholarships and good uni to go to =) And of course, may all MY dreams come true =P, one of which is that everyone's dreams come true ^^



ZhuZhu8th

Think Again

Hi, people

Just have a comeback, thought i might as well have a share with all of you an article i have come across a few days ago. This is to provide a guideline to all of you for all the grandma's and grandpa's out there that may seem different but actually are a lot in common with all of us, except the part of getting skin wrinkles and the aging of the hair ( it's worse in men)

Legends of the old people : -

MYTH #1: All old people are the same.

REALITY: There is more variety among older people than among any other age group.

MYTH #2: The basic human needs of older people are different from those of younger people.

REALITY: Human needs do not change as we grow old.

MYTH #3: More than 50 percent of the elderly are senile (that is, they suffer memory, disorientation, bizarre behavior)

REALITY: About 80 percent of older adults are healthy enough to carry out their normal activities.

MYTH # 4: All old people are incompetent.

REALITY: Many elderly people, even in the early stages of dementia, can retain their abilities to understand and appreciate information they are given and reason to make important life choices. Physical disabilities are often mistakenly linked to intellectual deficits.

MYTH #5: There is a lack of productivity with older people.

REALITY: While most older people are not in paid employment, they may have important roles as grandparents, caregivers, volunteers, or in civic and social activities.

MYTH #6: All old people suffer from rigid thinking.

REALITY: There is the belief elders shy away from new technologies such as use of computers and the Internet. Over 41 percent of those >65 use the Internet.

MYTH #7: As people age, their ability to learn often stops.

REALITY: Learning patterns may change and speed of learning may diminisg but the basic capacity to learn is retained.

MYTH #8: It is easier to learn new things than it is to recall things from the past.

REALITY: The exact opposite is true: It is easier to remember things from the past than it is to learn new things.

MYTH #9: Forgetfulness is likely to indicate the onset of dementia.

REALITY: Memory loss can be caused by medications, medical conditions, or by depression related to life events. Forgetfulness may be an early sign of dementia but it does not necessarily mean a person will be diagnosed with dementia.

MYTH#10: Everyone who gets old will develop dementia.

REALITY: Only 6%-8% of people over age 65 have dementia and 1/3 of those over age 85 have some dementia symptoms.

MYTH#11: All old people get depressed.

REALITY: Most older adults, most of the time, are not depressed. Depression is NOT a normal part of growing old but rather an illness that needs to be treated. Age alone is not a risk factor for depression.

MYTH#12: Depression in late life is more enduring and difficult to treat than depression at younger ages.

REALITY: The course of depression in the elderly is identical to that of younger persons. The response of depression to treatment appears as positive as at other life stages.

MYTH#13: Depression in late life is typically due to psychological factors.

REALITY: Depression in late life is frequently co-morbid with physical illness such as stroke, heart disease, diabetes, and hip fracture. If caregivers misinterpret the nature and different forms of depression, they may not seek diagnosis and treatment.

MYTH#14: If an older person does not look depressed, he/she does not feel depressed.

REALITY: Depression often causes physical problems such as loss of energy, low appetite and weight, trouble sleeping, social withdrawal, and complaints of pain. Depression can also make someone agitated and delusional.

MYTH#15: If an older person looks depressed, he or she must feel depressed.

REALITY: Depression is often mistaken for apathy which has been shown to be a different syndrome from depression.

So I end my post here and hopefully people would show this post to their children before they get old to avoid your grandkids asking "Grandpa, when are you not able to control your bladders like what happen in the drama series?" =)

Innocent